Economist: The World in 2012

In this fabulous issue of the Economist magazine, the editor writes:

TOP GROWERS

Country            GDP % growth

1   Macau                    15.0

2   Mongolia              14.8

3   Libya                      13.8

4   Iraq                         10.9

5   Angola                      9.9

6   Niger                        8.5

7   China                        8.2

8   Ethiopia                   8.0

9   Rwanda                    8.0

10  Laos                          7.9

“Tiny Macau, number one among the world’s top-growing economies for 2012, proves that casino gambling is a more stable driver of growth than the purely financial variety. Prominent, too, are Libya and Iraq, two Arab countries in which reconstruction and stabilisation after the violent overthrow of authoritarian regimes will unleash growth. In Libya’s case, the surge is a bounce-back from an even more precipitous slump while war raged. War’s ravages are more distant for Iraq, but post-conflict chaos delayed the recovery, and performance in 2012 may mark the start of something more sustained. Also prominent is China; this is fortunate since the demand generated by the world’s second-biggest economy will counteract some of the drag from the troubled rich world. Mongolia is enjoying a mining boom, and investment in the sector will boost growth. Angola, Laos and Niger will all benefit from relatively high commodity prices, and Ethiopia and Rwanda are gaining from the gradual commercialisation of their rural economies.”

The Frontier is recovering nicely.

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Perceptions

I am writing a Lesson Plan for one of our Circle Ministry topics this week and the subject is Perceptions. It occurred to me that this subject is one of the primary reasons for the development of my Frontier Markets Compendium. It is precisely the PERCEPTION of the frontier markets that blocks any attempt at learning their REALITIES. False perceptions make it easy to turn away from the understanding of, let alone investing in, the frontier markets. One takes comfort in what he already knows and has experienced. Thus when perceptions alone guide decisions, those decisions are at best uniformed and at worst robbing the decision maker of global, boundary-free realties that could materially alter the outcome of those decisions. I believe that alteration whether social or economic would be of tremendous benefit to any thoughtful decision maker.